Primary-source geopolitical risk

Geopolitical intelligence.
Translated into your business.

Varsko reads the world in real time and scores every development against your company's exact exposure: which contract it touches, what it costs, and what to do before the window closes. The analysis is informed by a private network of former heads of government, ambassadors, and senior security officials.

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geopolitical risk's rank among global D&O risks, up from 15th a year earlier

59%

of directors and officers now rate geopolitical risk very or extremely important

1 in 3

only about a third of organisations feel prepared for it

WTW & Reed Smith Global D&O Survey 2026 · Aon Global Risk Management Survey

01 · Live intelligence

This is what a Varsko signal looks like.

Every signal is scored against the client's exposure profile. Anything scored 4 or above sets out what it means for the business and the actions worth weighing, and, where the network has reach, a primary-source assessment no public feed carries. The final judgment stays with you.

CRITICAL· 5VK-0806-014 · Caucasus · Energy & ResourcesDetected 06:42 GMT

Georgia's Russia pivot threatens Europe's only non-Russian gas corridor

TANAP transit at risk as the EU sanctions timeline accelerates.

Risk tier: CRITICAL
Relevance: 91 / 100
Confidence: High (primary)
Horizon: 3-6 months

Why it matters to your business

TANAP crosses Georgian territory and carries roughly 22% of contracted gas volume for European mid-market buyers, under a government accelerating its alignment with Moscow. If Brussels moves first, transit restrictions arrive before the winter contracting round, and volumes contracted after 1 September reprice against a thinner corridor.

Recommended actions

Recommended actions◷ Time-sensitive

1Review contracted TANAP volumes and force majeure provisions before the renegotiation window closes.Suggested owner: Head of trading
2Price an alternative-corridor hedge for Q4 delivery while spreads remain pre-news.Suggested owner: Chartering desk

Recommendations for your team to weigh. The final judgment stays with you.

Primary intelligence

Primary sourceConfidenceHigh

EU sanctions on Georgia now have majority support in the Council. The realistic path to implementation is three to six months if the Hungarian veto is bypassed. Transit infrastructure is the pressure point both sides understand.

Former senior EU foreign policy officialTwelve years inside Council sanctions policySource contacted · 06.06.2026

Single-source primary assessment, corroborated against Council reporting and corridor flow data. Not derived from open reporting.

Exposure estimate

Corridor exposure

22%

of contracted European volume transits Georgia

Sanctions path

3-6 mo

majority Council support; the Hungarian veto is the variable

Cost of inaction

£2.1M

est. spot premium if transit restricts in Q4

Illustrative model estimate, grounded in the client profile. Not a forecast.

Varsko desk · model-scored, desk-calibrated · primary-source intelligence attached

HIGH· 4Red Sea · Security & Operations2h ago

Houthi targeting doctrine extends to LNG carriers with European manifests

Lloyd's underwriters expected to restrict Red Sea LNG cover within 4-6 weeks; Cape rerouting adds 14-18 days to European delivery.

Primary intel

HIGH· 4Norway · Energy & Resources5h ago

Troll A maintenance window creates an October supply gap not yet priced into forward curves

Norwegian export capacity falls 8-12% during the storage-fill season; spot exposure concentrates on buyers uncontracted by 1 September.

Primary intel

The dossier and signals above are illustrative, drawn from Varsko's live coverage in June 2026.

02 · The gap

Every accessible product stops one layer short.

Risk intelligence is a value chain: signals, scores, analysis, prescription. Each layer is worth more than the one before it. Almost everything you can buy stops before the end.

Signals

Dataminr · news APIs

Real-time event alerts. You learn that something happened, somewhere, fast. Nothing about what it means for you.

Scores

Country risk indices · ratings

One number for an entire nation, updated monthly or yearly. Useful for screening. Useless for a decision.

Analysis

Eurasia Group · Control Risks

Expert reports on what it means in general. Excellent, slow, and priced for the Fortune 500.

Prescription

The Varsko layer

What the event means for your business, and the actions worth weighing now, framed for a decision-maker rather than a feed. No accessible product delivers this layer. Varsko does, and the judgment stays yours.

Bespoke advisory reaches the fourth layer today, but well into six figures a year, delivered as retainers and reports rather than software, and priced out of reach for any firm below about $1bn in revenue. Below that, the layer is empty. Varsko delivers it as a product your team opens every morning, at a fraction of advisory cost.

Not a news feed

Varsko does not tell you what happened. It tells you what an event means for your contracts, routes, and assets, and what it costs to do nothing.

Not a generic AI

Every analysis runs against your company's exposure profile: named assets, contracted volumes, specific corridors. The same event reads differently for every client because it is different.

Not a consultancy retainer

Advisory firms deliver this layer through slide decks and quarterly calls. Varsko delivers it continuously, in software, without the retainer.

03 · The network

The layer a model cannot replicate.

Anything trained on public data reads the same wires as everyone else. Varsko's edge is human.

Primary source network

Varsko's analysis is informed by a private network of former heads of government, foreign ministers, defence ministers, ambassadors, and senior security officials across Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus.

Their assessments enter the product as attributed, confidence-rated primary intelligence: the dark block in the dossier above. That layer cannot be scraped, and a model trained on public data cannot reproduce it.

Former head of governmentFormer foreign ministerFormer defence ministerFormer ambassadorFormer deputy secretary of state

04 · Founders

Built at Harvard. Run from London and Washington.

AWAlfred WilliamsonCo-founder · London

Applied mathematics at Harvard. Deputy chair of the Global Affairs Program at Harvard's Institute of Politics, with field experience in Venezuela, the West Bank, Kosovo, and Nepal. Builds the product and runs European operations.

EDErik DalakerCo-founder · Washington DC

Harvard, with a concurrent master's in Middle Eastern studies and five languages. Belfer Center research with a former prime minister of Palestine and a former US ambassador to Israel and Syria. Based at CSIS in Washington; runs the US network and primary-source intelligence.

05 · Waitlist

Join the waitlist

Join the waitlist to follow what we're building. If you run a cross-border business, tell us where geopolitical risk reaches you, and we'll be in touch.

Geopolitical intelligence.Translated into your business.